Land-linked, trade-dependent economies face disproportionate exposure to global maritime decarbonisation policies; yet their perspectives remain underrepresented in policy design. This study assesses the economic impacts of four leading International Maritime Organization (IMO) mid-term greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction policy architectures on Malawi’s key commodity flows—tobacco exports and petroleum and fertiliser imports—using a structured quantitative methodology adapted from the UNCTAD Comprehensive Impact Assessment framework.
The analysis integrates merchandise trade profiling, route and vessel selection, scenario-based cost modelling, and combined vessel- and cargo-side cost estimations, benchmarked against a business-as-usual baseline. Results indicate that all policy scenarios increase logistics costs relative to the baseline, with fertiliser and petroleum imports exhibiting a substantially higher cost sensitivity (up to 20% increase) than tobacco exports (up to 6% increase). Flexibility-based mechanisms reduce short-term impacts but converge with more stringent instruments over time, while levy-based approaches impose higher near-term costs yet offer longer-term stability and potential revenue-generation benefits.
The findings call for balanced, commodity-sensitive policy pathways and strengthened capacity for effective participation by vulnerable economies in global maritime climate governance.
