This study presents a Nigeria-focused impact assessment of the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) proposed basket of candidate mid-term greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction measures, developed in the context of the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy and the emerging Net-Zero Framework. Using Nigeria as a case study, the analysis examines how different combinations of technical and economic measures—particularly a global fuel standard and GHG pricing mechanisms—could affect national economic outcomes by altering maritime transport costs.
Building on the IMO Comprehensive Impact Assessment framework and UNCTAD modelling outputs, the study evaluates the implications for key indicators, including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), imports, exports, consumer prices, and sector-specific trade flows, across the short (2030), medium (2040), and long (2050) horizons. Particular attention is given to Nigeria’s trade structure and critical commodities, highlighting sensitivities linked to energy imports, agricultural inputs, and food security.
The findings indicate that all policy scenarios result in higher maritime logistics costs relative to business-as-usual, with varying impacts depending on levy levels, flexibility mechanisms, and revenue redistribution. Scenarios that include revenue recycling show greater potential to offset negative macroeconomic impacts, while poorly designed measures risk exacerbating inflationary pressures and trade vulnerabilities.
Overall, the Nigeria case study underscores the importance of a just and equitable transition, tailored revenue allocation, and complementary domestic policies to ensure that global maritime decarbonisation efforts do not disproportionately burden developing economies. The analysis provides evidence-based insights to support Nigeria’s engagement with the IMO and contributes to broader African perspectives on the shaping of fair and effective mid-term GHG reduction measures.
