This report presents an Africa-centric analysis of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Comprehensive Impact Assessment (CIA) of the International Maritime Organization’s proposed basket of mid-term greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction measures. Developed under the Leading Effective Afrocentric Participation (LEAP) project, the analysis aims to support African states in interpreting and engaging with the economic modelling that underpins ongoing negotiations to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from ships.
The report examines how various policy scenarios could affect key economic indicators across six African case study countries: Ghana, Kenya, Liberia, Malawi, Namibia, and Nigeria. These indicators include GDP, imports, exports, and consumer prices. Impacts are assessed over three time horizons aligned with the IMO GHG Strategy checkpoints for 2030, 2040, and 2050. All scenarios are evaluated on a Well-to-Wake basis under a low-seaborne trade-growth assumption.
Findings indicate that while most scenarios generate adverse economic effects, policy designs incorporating levy mechanisms with revenue redistribution can partially mitigate GDP and trade impacts. The analysis highlights the importance of revenue allocation, flexibility mechanisms, and complementary national policies in ensuring a just and equitable transition for African economies within the IMO Net-Zero Framework.
