Leading Effective Afrocentric Participation (LEAP) Project Phase I

LEAP Phase I marked the launch of a bold, African-led initiative to position the continent at the centre of global debates on maritime decarbonisation. Set against the backdrop of the IMO’s adoption of the Revised GHG Strategy in 2023, this first phase set out to equip African states with the tools they needed most: evidence, analysis, and the networks required to engage effectively in complex international negotiations.
At its heart, Phase I was about laying strong foundations. It delivered the first set of shipping emissions inventories ever compiled for six African states, conducted detailed case studies of the economic impacts of the IMO’s candidate measures on key national commodities, and convened regional workshops that brought together policymakers, academics, and industry experts. By producing data and analysis owned by the countries themselves, Phase I gave African delegations the confidence to engage at the IMO not merely as participants, but as informed advocates capable of shaping outcomes with clear, evidence-backed positions.

Overview

The project was organised around four interconnected workstreams, each designed to link technical analysis with political strategy in a way that reinforced Africa’s collective position:

National Emission Inventories – Country-level inventories of maritime emissions were developed for Ghana, Nigeria, Namibia, Malawi, Kenya, and Liberia using a combination of port call data and Automatic Identification System (AIS) records. These inventories provided, for the first time, a clear picture of emissions linked to African shipping activities.
Case Studies of Economic Impact – Detailed case studies applied IMO policy scenarios to key national commodities, such as cocoa, crude oil, tobacco, uranium, sesame, fish, and petroleum imports. The work quantified the likely cost impacts of different measures, giving states an evidence base to understand both risks and opportunities.
Interpretation of Global Models – Results from the IMO’s Comprehensive Impact Assessment (undertaken by DNV and UNCTAD) were translated into short, digestible policy briefs. These were tailored to African contexts, allowing negotiators to navigate highly technical material with clarity and confidence.
Regional Convenings & Capacity Building – In-country workshops and consultations were held across the six case study states. These convenings created collaborative spaces for maritime regulators, ministries, universities, and private sector stakeholders to come together, exchange insights, and build consensus ahead of IMO meetings.

Together, these four streams combined to produce Africa’s first technical toolkit for maritime decarbonization—a toolkit that ensured national interests were backed by solid evidence before the IMO’s Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC).

Methodology

Phase I adopted a data-driven, inclusive, and collaborative approach. Research was anchored in African institutions and supported by the UCL Energy Institute to ensure both technical rigour and local ownership.

Data Collection & Analysis: Port call records, AIS datasets, and UNCTAD trade data were consolidated to build national inventories of shipping emissions. These were then analysed to produce voyage-based estimates of energy demand and CO₂ output.
Case Study Modelling: Four IMO policy scenarios—Scenario 24 (GFI Flexibility), Scenario 26 (High Levy), Scenario 32 (Low Levy), and Scenario 36 (Feebate)—were applied to key import and export commodities. Vessel-side and cargo-side costs were modelled under ship speed reduction assumptions.
Workshops & Consultations: In-country workshops engaged maritime agencies, trade ministries, academics, and private sector representatives. These sessions were used to validate data, refine assumptions, and build consensus on national priorities.
Policy Translation: Findings were synthesised into short, accessible reports complete with graphs, infographics, and clear recommendations. These were designed specifically to be useful to negotiators preparing for IMO meetings.

This methodology ensured that the outputs were not only technically sound but also directly usable by African policymakers in high-level negotiations.

Outcome

Leadership Foundations

Six African states produced their first-ever shipping emissions inventories, marking a historic step in the continent’s capacity to engage with global maritime climate policy.
National agencies and universities gained valuable experience in handling AIS and trade data, building local technical expertise for future analyses.

Evidence on Economic Impacts

Case studies quantified the cost implications of IMO measures across key commodities.
- Ghana: Cocoa, crude oil, petroleum.
- Nigeria: Crude oil, PMS, sesame, herbicides.
- Namibia: Uranium, fish, petroleum.
- Malawi: Tobacco, fertiliser, petroleum.
- Kenya: Tea, coffee, petroleum.
- Liberia: Iron ore, timber, petroleum, food products & vegetable oil
Results revealed that imports, such as fertilisers, petroleum, and herbicides, were among the most exposed to rising costs, while perishable exports, like sesame and tobacco, were at risk from longer voyage times and depreciation.

Regional Capacity

Workshops established new cross-sectoral networks in each participating country, connecting regulators, policymakers, academics, and industry representatives.
Universities, including the University of Lagos, the University of Malawi, the Namibia University of Science and Technology (NUST), the University of Nairobi, and the University of Liberia, served as hubs of expertise and training, embedding knowledge within their respective regions.

Policy Readiness

African delegations entered IMO negotiations with stronger evidence at their disposal, supported by concise policy briefs that distilled complex modelling into actionable insights.

Recommendations emphasised the importance of a balanced approach—combining levy-based measures with flexibility mechanisms—and highlighted the need for equitable redistribution of revenues to cushion vulnerable economies.

The Professional African Technical Network Advisory (PATNA) Initiative is a non-profit organisation dedicated to supporting African-centred climate action and energy transition pathways grounded in evidence, collaboration, and institutional understanding.